Ukraine’s parliament and president have extended martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days through August 2, 2026, continuing the legal prohibition on national elections that has been renewed in 90-day increments since the 2022 full-scale invasion. Constitutional provisions bar presidential elections while martial law remains in effect, and all major parties have accepted that polls can occur only after a ceasefire and credible security guarantees. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated his readiness to hold elections once those conditions are met, yet no such breakthrough has occurred. These structural and wartime realities underpin trader consensus that he will still hold office on June 30, 2026, while any sudden diplomatic resolution or major battlefield reversal before that date remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome.