Incumbent Republican Steve Womack faces Democrat Robb Ryerse in Arkansas’s 3rd congressional district, a solidly Republican seat that delivered Womack a 63.8% share in 2024. The March 2026 primaries produced no surprises, with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed, leaving the November general election as the decisive contest. District partisanship, Womack’s long tenure, and limited Democratic infrastructure keep the race non-competitive by historical standards, producing market-implied probabilities clustered around mid-20s to low-30s percentage-point Republican margins. Low Democratic win odds reflect the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising anomalies, or national-wave signals that would normally compress margins. Any late-cycle development—such as an unexpected turnout surge in northwest Arkansas suburbs or a high-profile national endorsement—could alter the distribution among the narrower Republican margin buckets, but none has materialized to date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRepublikaner 40 %+ 34%
Republikaner 35-40% 34%
Republikaner 30-35% 34%
Republikaner 25-30% 33%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 40 %+
34%
Republikaner 35-40%
34%
Republikaner 30-35%
34%
Republikaner 25-30%
33%
Republikaner 20-25%
33%
Republikaner 15-20%
33%
Republikaner 10-15%
33%
Republikaner 0-10%
33%
Democrat Wins
16%
Republikaner 40 %+ 34%
Republikaner 35-40% 34%
Republikaner 30-35% 34%
Republikaner 25-30% 33%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 40 %+
$0 Vol.
34%
Republikaner 35-40%
$0 Vol.
34%
Republikaner 30-35%
$0 Vol.
34%
Republikaner 25-30%
$0 Vol.
33%
Republikaner 20-25%
$0 Vol.
33%
Republikaner 15-20%
$0 Vol.
33%
Republikaner 10-15%
$0 Vol.
33%
Republikaner 0-10%
$0 Vol.
33%
Democrat Wins
$0 Vol.
16%
The 2026 AR-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Steve Womack faces Democrat Robb Ryerse in Arkansas’s 3rd congressional district, a solidly Republican seat that delivered Womack a 63.8% share in 2024. The March 2026 primaries produced no surprises, with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed, leaving the November general election as the decisive contest. District partisanship, Womack’s long tenure, and limited Democratic infrastructure keep the race non-competitive by historical standards, producing market-implied probabilities clustered around mid-20s to low-30s percentage-point Republican margins. Low Democratic win odds reflect the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising anomalies, or national-wave signals that would normally compress margins. Any late-cycle development—such as an unexpected turnout surge in northwest Arkansas suburbs or a high-profile national endorsement—could alter the distribution among the narrower Republican margin buckets, but none has materialized to date.
The 2026 AR-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 5:39 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 5:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AR-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Steve Womack faces Democrat Robb Ryerse in Arkansas’s 3rd congressional district, a solidly Republican seat that delivered Womack a 63.8% share in 2024. The March 2026 primaries produced no surprises, with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed, leaving the November general election as the decisive contest. District partisanship, Womack’s long tenure, and limited Democratic infrastructure keep the race non-competitive by historical standards, producing market-implied probabilities clustered around mid-20s to low-30s percentage-point Republican margins. Low Democratic win odds reflect the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising anomalies, or national-wave signals that would normally compress margins. Any late-cycle development—such as an unexpected turnout surge in northwest Arkansas suburbs or a high-profile national endorsement—could alter the distribution among the narrower Republican margin buckets, but none has materialized to date.
The 2026 AR-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 5:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Steve Womack faces Democrat Robb Ryerse in Arkansas’s 3rd congressional district, a solidly Republican seat that delivered Womack a 63.8% share in 2024. The March 2026 primaries produced no surprises, with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed, leaving the November general election as the decisive contest. District partisanship, Womack’s long tenure, and limited Democratic infrastructure keep the race non-competitive by historical standards, producing market-implied probabilities clustered around mid-20s to low-30s percentage-point Republican margins. Low Democratic win odds reflect the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising anomalies, or national-wave signals that would normally compress margins. Any late-cycle development—such as an unexpected turnout surge in northwest Arkansas suburbs or a high-profile national endorsement—could alter the distribution among the narrower Republican margin buckets, but none has materialized to date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 35%-40%?
50%
Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk AR-01 im Jahr 2026 mit 30%-35% Vorsprung gewinnen?
50%
Ja
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-02 House election by 25% or more?
34%
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen