Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has elevated near-term UK inflation risks, with CPI at 2.6% but projected to peak near 3.2% in 2026 Q4, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote in late July. This backdrop underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting, as traders price in the MPC’s preference to lean against upside risks while monitoring second-round effects. Supporting factors include subdued underlying disinflation trends and a relatively loose labor market that continues to ease wage pressures. A clear shift in oil prices, softer-than-expected August CPI or labor data, or dovish central bank communications could still lift odds of a 25 basis point move.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of England im September?
Keine Änderung 91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 9.4%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$144,938 Vol.
$144,938 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
9%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 9.4%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$144,938 Vol.
$144,938 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
9%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has elevated near-term UK inflation risks, with CPI at 2.6% but projected to peak near 3.2% in 2026 Q4, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote in late July. This backdrop underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting, as traders price in the MPC’s preference to lean against upside risks while monitoring second-round effects. Supporting factors include subdued underlying disinflation trends and a relatively loose labor market that continues to ease wage pressures. A clear shift in oil prices, softer-than-expected August CPI or labor data, or dovish central bank communications could still lift odds of a 25 basis point move.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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