Recent data following the Bank of Russia's July 25-basis-point cut to 14.00% underscore a cautious easing path, with the central bank raising its 2026 average key-rate forecast to 14.5–14.6% amid one-off fuel-price spikes from refinery disruptions, elevated inflation expectations, and a more expansionary fiscal stance. Underlying inflation measures remain anchored near 4–5% annualized, while economic growth has moderated and lending has slowed, supporting trader consensus around a September 11 hold at 62% probability. A further reduction retains 38% odds if incoming inflation and expectation readings confirm sustained disinflation without second-round effects, whereas an increase stays marginal at 1.7% given the ongoing cycle and baseline projections. The September outcome will hinge on August–September price and demand indicators ahead of the next scheduled review.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of Russia im September?
Keine Änderung 62%
Senkung 38%
Erhöhung 1.9%
$62,649 Vol.
$62,649 Vol.
Senkung
38%
Keine Änderung
62%
Erhöhung
2%
Keine Änderung 62%
Senkung 38%
Erhöhung 1.9%
$62,649 Vol.
$62,649 Vol.
Senkung
38%
Keine Änderung
62%
Erhöhung
2%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 23, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data following the Bank of Russia's July 25-basis-point cut to 14.00% underscore a cautious easing path, with the central bank raising its 2026 average key-rate forecast to 14.5–14.6% amid one-off fuel-price spikes from refinery disruptions, elevated inflation expectations, and a more expansionary fiscal stance. Underlying inflation measures remain anchored near 4–5% annualized, while economic growth has moderated and lending has slowed, supporting trader consensus around a September 11 hold at 62% probability. A further reduction retains 38% odds if incoming inflation and expectation readings confirm sustained disinflation without second-round effects, whereas an increase stays marginal at 1.7% given the ongoing cycle and baseline projections. The September outcome will hinge on August–September price and demand indicators ahead of the next scheduled review.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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