Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier faces Republican Jeff Frese in the November 3 general election for California's 10th congressional district after both advanced from the June top-two primary. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic based on its partisan lean and DeSaulnier's prior performance, though the provided market prices show balanced probabilities across margin buckets and a Republican win outcome. With limited recent polling or campaign events specific to the district, trader consensus appears anchored in the absence of late-breaking shifts, historical base rates for safe seats, and any national political or economic developments that could influence turnout or swing voters in this cycle. Scheduled milestones such as candidate debates or October fundraising reports could introduce separation if they alter perceived competitiveness.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDemokrat 55%+ 43%
Republikaner gewinnt 43%
Demokrat 40-45% 42%
Demokrat 35-40% 42%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokrat 55%+
43%
Demokrat 50-55%
41%
Demokrat 45-50%
42%
Demokrat 40-45%
42%
Demokrat 35-40%
42%
Demokrat 30-35%
42%
Demokrat 25–30 %
42%
Demokrat 15-25%
42%
Demokrat 0-15%
40%
Republikaner gewinnt
43%
Demokrat 55%+ 43%
Republikaner gewinnt 43%
Demokrat 40-45% 42%
Demokrat 35-40% 42%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokrat 55%+
$0 Vol.
43%
Demokrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
41%
Demokrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demokrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demokrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demokrat 30-35%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demokrat 25–30 %
$0 Vol.
42%
Demokrat 15-25%
$0 Vol.
42%
Demokrat 0-15%
$0 Vol.
40%
Republikaner gewinnt
$0 Vol.
43%
The 2026 CA-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier faces Republican Jeff Frese in the November 3 general election for California's 10th congressional district after both advanced from the June top-two primary. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic based on its partisan lean and DeSaulnier's prior performance, though the provided market prices show balanced probabilities across margin buckets and a Republican win outcome. With limited recent polling or campaign events specific to the district, trader consensus appears anchored in the absence of late-breaking shifts, historical base rates for safe seats, and any national political or economic developments that could influence turnout or swing voters in this cycle. Scheduled milestones such as candidate debates or October fundraising reports could introduce separation if they alter perceived competitiveness.
The 2026 CA-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier faces Republican Jeff Frese in the November 3 general election for California's 10th congressional district after both advanced from the June top-two primary. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic based on its partisan lean and DeSaulnier's prior performance, though the provided market prices show balanced probabilities across margin buckets and a Republican win outcome. With limited recent polling or campaign events specific to the district, trader consensus appears anchored in the absence of late-breaking shifts, historical base rates for safe seats, and any national political or economic developments that could influence turnout or swing voters in this cycle. Scheduled milestones such as candidate debates or October fundraising reports could introduce separation if they alter perceived competitiveness.
The 2026 CA-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier faces Republican Jeff Frese in the November 3 general election for California's 10th congressional district after both advanced from the June top-two primary. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic based on its partisan lean and DeSaulnier's prior performance, though the provided market prices show balanced probabilities across margin buckets and a Republican win outcome. With limited recent polling or campaign events specific to the district, trader consensus appears anchored in the absence of late-breaking shifts, historical base rates for safe seats, and any national political or economic developments that could influence turnout or swing voters in this cycle. Scheduled milestones such as candidate debates or October fundraising reports could introduce separation if they alter perceived competitiveness.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
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