In Georgia’s heavily Democratic 13th district, traders assigned a 97.9 percent probability to an outright first-round winner in the July 28, 2026 special election because the open primary featured a crowded Democratic field against limited Republican opposition. Vote splitting among minor candidates and historically low turnout in special elections were expected to allow the leading Democrat to clear 50 percent. The vacancy left by the late incumbent further concentrated Democratic support. Even with this consensus, a stronger-than-anticipated performance by multiple Democratic contenders or unusually high Republican participation could have prevented a majority, forcing the August 25 runoff that ultimately occurred.