Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate heavy rain and persistent cloud cover over Beijing on August 12 will suppress solar heating, keeping the daytime maximum near 26–27°C. These conditions reduce incoming shortwave radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating the closely matched leading outcomes: thicker cloud decks and earlier precipitation onset favor 26°C, while any brief clearing or delayed rain could allow brief warming toward 27–28°C. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 30°C, but the current pattern deviates due to a stronger-than-normal monsoon trough. Updated CMA guidance and next model runs before resolution will refine probabilities, underscoring forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and intensity.