Recent forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate Madrid will likely experience peak temperatures of 36–37°C on June 19 under a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in simulated cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds between these two outcomes, with 36°C slightly favored. Historical June climatology for the region, with average highs near 28–30°C rising under current above-normal conditions, supports the elevated range, while the short two-day lead time limits further sharpening of probabilities ahead of updated runs and official AEMET guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on June 19?
36°C 46%
37°C 36%
35°C 9%
38°C 8%
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
4%
35°C
9%
36°C
46%
37°C
36%
38°C
8%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
36°C 46%
37°C 36%
35°C 9%
38°C 8%
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
4%
35°C
9%
36°C
46%
37°C
36%
38°C
8%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate Madrid will likely experience peak temperatures of 36–37°C on June 19 under a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in simulated cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds between these two outcomes, with 36°C slightly favored. Historical June climatology for the region, with average highs near 28–30°C rising under current above-normal conditions, supports the elevated range, while the short two-day lead time limits further sharpening of probabilities ahead of updated runs and official AEMET guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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