Traders assign the highest probabilities to 28–29°C for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on June 18, reflecting short-range forecast consensus amid seasonal warmth. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook projects above-normal June–August temperatures driven by long-term climate trends and current ENSO conditions, while daily models show highs near 28°C with moderate humidity and scattered showers that can suppress peak readings by limiting insolation. Key differentiating factors include afternoon convective development, wind patterns, and cloud cover, which introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2°C around the mean. Official resolution uses the Observatory’s recorded maximum, so updates from numerical weather prediction runs and any late adjustments in steering flow will determine whether the outcome tilts toward 28°C or 29°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 18?
29°C 31%
28°C 24%
30°C 15%
31°C 9%
NEU
NEU
18. Juni 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
8%
28°C
24%
29°C
31%
30°C
15%
31°C
9%
32°C
4%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 31%
28°C 24%
30°C 15%
31°C 9%
NEU
NEU
18. Juni 2026
24°C or below
$99 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$470 Vol.
1%
27°C
$214 Vol.
8%
28°C
$310 Vol.
24%
29°C
$364 Vol.
31%
30°C
$550 Vol.
15%
31°C
$466 Vol.
9%
32°C
$135 Vol.
4%
33°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$93 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 28–29°C for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on June 18, reflecting short-range forecast consensus amid seasonal warmth. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook projects above-normal June–August temperatures driven by long-term climate trends and current ENSO conditions, while daily models show highs near 28°C with moderate humidity and scattered showers that can suppress peak readings by limiting insolation. Key differentiating factors include afternoon convective development, wind patterns, and cloud cover, which introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2°C around the mean. Official resolution uses the Observatory’s recorded maximum, so updates from numerical weather prediction runs and any late adjustments in steering flow will determine whether the outcome tilts toward 28°C or 29°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 16, 2026, 12:17 AM ET
Volumen
$2,970Enddatum
18. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 16, 2026, 12:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 28–29°C for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on June 18, reflecting short-range forecast consensus amid seasonal warmth. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook projects above-normal June–August temperatures driven by long-term climate trends and current ENSO conditions, while daily models show highs near 28°C with moderate humidity and scattered showers that can suppress peak readings by limiting insolation. Key differentiating factors include afternoon convective development, wind patterns, and cloud cover, which introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2°C around the mean. Official resolution uses the Observatory’s recorded maximum, so updates from numerical weather prediction runs and any late adjustments in steering flow will determine whether the outcome tilts toward 28°C or 29°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,970Enddatum
18. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 16, 2026, 12:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probabilities to 28–29°C for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on June 18, reflecting short-range forecast consensus amid seasonal warmth. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook projects above-normal June–August temperatures driven by long-term climate trends and current ENSO conditions, while daily models show highs near 28°C with moderate humidity and scattered showers that can suppress peak readings by limiting insolation. Key differentiating factors include afternoon convective development, wind patterns, and cloud cover, which introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2°C around the mean. Official resolution uses the Observatory’s recorded maximum, so updates from numerical weather prediction runs and any late adjustments in steering flow will determine whether the outcome tilts toward 28°C or 29°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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