**Recent official forecasts from MetService New Zealand position a 13–14°C maximum as the most likely outcome for Wellington on June 18, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 50.5% implied probability on 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C.** Fine conditions and developing northwesterlies are expected to limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming, consistent with the region’s winter climatology of average June highs near 13°C. Numerical weather models show minimal spread at this lead time, with ensemble guidance converging on peak temperatures in that narrow band and only low probabilities for outliers above 15°C or below 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures across central New Zealand through June, providing additional context that traders have incorporated into the current pricing. With resolution just two days away, any further model updates will have limited time to shift probabilities substantially unless a notable change in the synoptic pattern emerges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wellington on June 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 18?
14°C 51%
13°C 26%
15°C 14%
12°C 4.5%
NEU
NEU
18. Juni 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
26%
14°C
51%
15°C
14%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 51%
13°C 26%
15°C 14%
12°C 4.5%
NEU
NEU
18. Juni 2026
8°C or below
$244 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$78 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$86 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$99 Vol.
1%
12°C
$57 Vol.
5%
13°C
$347 Vol.
26%
14°C
$125 Vol.
51%
15°C
$585 Vol.
14%
16°C
$345 Vol.
2%
17°C
$74 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$80 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService New Zealand position a 13–14°C maximum as the most likely outcome for Wellington on June 18, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 50.5% implied probability on 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C.**
Fine conditions and developing northwesterlies are expected to limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming, consistent with the region’s winter climatology of average June highs near 13°C. Numerical weather models show minimal spread at this lead time, with ensemble guidance converging on peak temperatures in that narrow band and only low probabilities for outliers above 15°C or below 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures across central New Zealand through June, providing additional context that traders have incorporated into the current pricing. With resolution just two days away, any further model updates will have limited time to shift probabilities substantially unless a notable change in the synoptic pattern emerges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 16, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$1,905Enddatum
18. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 16, 2026, 12:18 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService New Zealand position a 13–14°C maximum as the most likely outcome for Wellington on June 18, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 50.5% implied probability on 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C.**
Fine conditions and developing northwesterlies are expected to limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming, consistent with the region’s winter climatology of average June highs near 13°C. Numerical weather models show minimal spread at this lead time, with ensemble guidance converging on peak temperatures in that narrow band and only low probabilities for outliers above 15°C or below 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures across central New Zealand through June, providing additional context that traders have incorporated into the current pricing. With resolution just two days away, any further model updates will have limited time to shift probabilities substantially unless a notable change in the synoptic pattern emerges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,905Enddatum
18. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 16, 2026, 12:18 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts from MetService New Zealand position a 13–14°C maximum as the most likely outcome for Wellington on June 18, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 50.5% implied probability on 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C.** Fine conditions and developing northwesterlies are expected to limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming, consistent with the region’s winter climatology of average June highs near 13°C. Numerical weather models show minimal spread at this lead time, with ensemble guidance converging on peak temperatures in that narrow band and only low probabilities for outliers above 15°C or below 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures across central New Zealand through June, providing additional context that traders have incorporated into the current pricing. With resolution just two days away, any further model updates will have limited time to shift probabilities substantially unless a notable change in the synoptic pattern emerges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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