Recent forecasts from Météo-France highlight a building heatwave across northern France, driven by southerly warm-air advection under clear skies and light winds that limit cooling and mixing. Ensemble models currently converge on afternoon maxima of 35–36 °C for Paris on June 18, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer details and exact timing of peak heating. Historical June climatology places typical highs near 23–24 °C, underscoring the anomalous nature of this event. Traders appear to weigh the consensus 36 °C outcome most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to 35 °C or 37 °C, consistent with the narrow but still-evolving range in official guidance ahead of the final model runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Paris on June 18?
36°C 36%
35°C 31%
37°C 14%
34°C 7%
$11,161 Vol.
$11,161 Vol.
32°C or below
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
7%
35°C
31%
36°C
36%
37°C
14%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 36%
35°C 31%
37°C 14%
34°C 7%
$11,161 Vol.
$11,161 Vol.
32°C or below
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
7%
35°C
31%
36°C
36%
37°C
14%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 16, 2026, 1:18 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France highlight a building heatwave across northern France, driven by southerly warm-air advection under clear skies and light winds that limit cooling and mixing. Ensemble models currently converge on afternoon maxima of 35–36 °C for Paris on June 18, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer details and exact timing of peak heating. Historical June climatology places typical highs near 23–24 °C, underscoring the anomalous nature of this event. Traders appear to weigh the consensus 36 °C outcome most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to 35 °C or 37 °C, consistent with the narrow but still-evolving range in official guidance ahead of the final model runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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