Traders see 30–32°C as the most probable range for Chengdu’s June 18 high because current ensemble forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration indicate daytime maxima near 29–31°C under persistent cloud cover and scattered showers tied to the East Asian monsoon. The Sichuan Basin’s topography and high humidity typically limit solar heating and convective mixing, keeping peaks below the seasonal 33–34°C potential even as regional moisture influx raises dew points. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on timing of any clearing, while historical June data place the long-term average high near 28–30°C, reinforcing the tight clustering around 30–31°C outcomes. New model runs and satellite observations of cloud trends over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.