Recent KMA short-range forecasts for Seoul-Incheon on August 22 project a daytime maximum near 31°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 60% chance of morning rain, moderating insolation and surface heating relative to clear-sky potential. Ensemble models show modest spread around this value due to variable steering flows and moisture advection from the East Sea, consistent with late-August climatology of 30–31°C highs. These factors concentrate trader-implied probabilities on the 28–30°C outcomes (combined ~72%), while the 12.5% on 31°C reflects residual upside if precipitation timing shifts later in the day. Updated model runs and KMA briefings over the next 48 hours will further refine resolution thresholds tied to official station maxima.