Traders see the closest probabilities clustered around 32°C and 33°C for Taipei’s highest temperature on May 22 because the latest regional forecast models show a subtropical ridge maintaining mostly clear skies and light southerly flow over northern Taiwan, allowing strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud interference or mixing. These conditions produce afternoon peaks in the low 30s Celsius, a modest positive departure from the May climatological average of 29–30°C. Ensemble guidance still carries uncertainty from potential afternoon convection or slight shifts in wind direction that could cap or boost readings by 1–2°C. The next model updates from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration, expected within the next 24 hours, will provide the clearest signal on whether the warm anomaly holds through the resolution window.