Latest short-range forecasts from regional models indicate overnight lows in Hong Kong on May 24 will likely settle near 25–27 °C, consistent with the seasonal transition toward warmer conditions under a normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook from the Hong Kong Observatory. Persistent humidity, variable cloud cover, and potential light showers remain the dominant variables that could either suppress nocturnal cooling and push the minimum above 28 °C or allow clearer skies for greater radiative heat loss toward 24–25 °C. Traders are weighting the upper end of the distribution more heavily because recent multi-day guidance shows limited cold-air intrusions and a strengthening subtropical ridge, though model spread on boundary-layer moisture introduces the observed dispersion across outcomes. Updated runs from the next 48 hours will clarify whether land-sea breeze effects tighten or widen the range.