Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological centers point to a daytime high in Warsaw on May 22 of 22–23 °C, driven by a northwesterly flow of mild Atlantic air under partly cloudy skies. This setup favors modest daytime heating with limited moisture for cloud formation, keeping maximum temperatures from climbing higher while preventing significant cooling from overnight radiational losses. Model spreads arise mainly from subtle differences in predicted cloud thickness and wind speeds during peak insolation hours, which can shift the outcome by 1–2 °C. Historical May climatology for the region shows average highs near 20 °C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly consistent with the tightly matched market probabilities around the 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes.