A single magnitude 6.5 earthquake, recorded by the USGS and BMKG on September 11 at 21:23 UTC in the Java Sea (epicenter roughly 126 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia, depth ~372 km), accounts for the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability on exactly one event. No other quake during September 7–13 reached the 6.5 threshold on official catalogs, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M6.5+ event every few days and the absence of additional signals from regional networks. Deep intraslab activity in the Sunda subduction zone produced the tremor without triggering aftershocks or tsunami alerts. Revised magnitudes or newly confirmed events from slower-reporting stations remain the only realistic paths to a different outcome before final resolution.