Minnesota's eight congressional districts remain largely entrenched along partisan lines heading into the November 2026 general election, with four seats rated safe or likely Democratic and three safe or likely Republican by nonpartisan forecasters. The open MN-02 race, vacated by retiring Democrat Angie Craig, represents the primary swing opportunity and accounts for the market's concentration around a four-seat Democratic outcome. Primaries concluded on August 11 with nominees set in all districts, producing no immediate shifts in competitive dynamics. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats by modest margins have not yet produced measurable movement in Minnesota-specific polling or ratings for the remaining seats. Traders appear to price limited upside for additional Democratic gains absent broader shifts in turnout or late-cycle developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4 60%
5 26%
6+ 9%
3 7%
<3
5%
3
7%
4
60%
5
26%
6+
9%
4 60%
5 26%
6+ 9%
3 7%
<3
5%
3
7%
4
60%
5
26%
6+
9%
All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 11, 2026, 10:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Minnesota's eight congressional districts remain largely entrenched along partisan lines heading into the November 2026 general election, with four seats rated safe or likely Democratic and three safe or likely Republican by nonpartisan forecasters. The open MN-02 race, vacated by retiring Democrat Angie Craig, represents the primary swing opportunity and accounts for the market's concentration around a four-seat Democratic outcome. Primaries concluded on August 11 with nominees set in all districts, producing no immediate shifts in competitive dynamics. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats by modest margins have not yet produced measurable movement in Minnesota-specific polling or ratings for the remaining seats. Traders appear to price limited upside for additional Democratic gains absent broader shifts in turnout or late-cycle developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen