Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 20–23 seats on average, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote. This positioning stems from the rise of competing lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud in surveys, alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together and other centrist or right-leaning options drawing support. The Netanyahu-led bloc overall hovers near 50–55 seats, short of a 61-seat majority, reflecting sustained voter shifts amid security concerns and coalition fatigue. Traders pricing “yes” at 90.5% align with these consistent polling trends across multiple houses, where Likud’s projected decline appears structural rather than marginal. Upcoming final weeks of campaigning could still alter margins through turnout or late events, but current data indicate limited paths for seat gains.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert91% Chance
$18,302 Vol.
$18,302 Vol.
30. Juni 2027
91% Chance
$18,302 Vol.
$18,302 Vol.
30. Juni 2027
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 20–23 seats on average, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote. This positioning stems from the rise of competing lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud in surveys, alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together and other centrist or right-leaning options drawing support. The Netanyahu-led bloc overall hovers near 50–55 seats, short of a 61-seat majority, reflecting sustained voter shifts amid security concerns and coalition fatigue. Traders pricing “yes” at 90.5% align with these consistent polling trends across multiple houses, where Likud’s projected decline appears structural rather than marginal. Upcoming final weeks of campaigning could still alter margins through turnout or late events, but current data indicate limited paths for seat gains.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$18,302Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 20–23 seats on average, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote. This positioning stems from the rise of competing lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud in surveys, alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together and other centrist or right-leaning options drawing support. The Netanyahu-led bloc overall hovers near 50–55 seats, short of a 61-seat majority, reflecting sustained voter shifts amid security concerns and coalition fatigue. Traders pricing “yes” at 90.5% align with these consistent polling trends across multiple houses, where Likud’s projected decline appears structural rather than marginal. Upcoming final weeks of campaigning could still alter margins through turnout or late events, but current data indicate limited paths for seat gains.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$18,302Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 20–23 seats on average, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote. This positioning stems from the rise of competing lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud in surveys, alongside Naftali Bennett’s Together and other centrist or right-leaning options drawing support. The Netanyahu-led bloc overall hovers near 50–55 seats, short of a 61-seat majority, reflecting sustained voter shifts amid security concerns and coalition fatigue. Traders pricing “yes” at 90.5% align with these consistent polling trends across multiple houses, where Likud’s projected decline appears structural rather than marginal. Upcoming final weeks of campaigning could still alter margins through turnout or late events, but current data indicate limited paths for seat gains.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen