Recent polling averages place Likud near 23 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Naftali Bennett’s Together slate that keeps the Netanyahu-aligned bloc several seats short of a 61-seat majority. Security concerns dominate the campaign, with Likud emphasizing continuity on threats while opposition lists highlight alternatives. Wide pollster variance, ranging from the high teens to low thirties for Likud, sustains uncertainty over final seat totals and coalition arithmetic. The Supreme Court’s reversal of Arab-party disqualifications further stabilizes bloc projections near current levels without resolving the fragmented outcome. Traders price the 20-24 seat range highest as it aligns with the most consistent recent survey results.