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icon for Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl
Politik·Brasilien

Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl

icon for Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl
Politik·Brasilien

Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl

Lula 86%

Flavio Bolsonaro 14%

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$13,968 Vol.

Lula 86%

Flavio Bolsonaro 14%

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$13,968 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$6,030 Vol.

86%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,464 Vol.

14%

icon for Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

$1,087 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$777 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$766 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$316 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$366 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a clear lead in recent Brazilian polling as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking re-election on October 4, positioning him as the strong favorite to secure the most first-round votes. The latest Quaest survey shows him at 37% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, with Augusto Cury rising to 10% on media exposure while no other contender exceeds low single digits. This gap, consistent across multiple institutes since campaign broadcasts began in late August, reflects Lula’s established voter base and the fragmented right-wing field. Traders assign Flavio Bolsonaro only modest first-round odds, reflecting his trailing position and limited path to plurality. Upcoming debates and final voter shifts remain the main variables before ballots are cast.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$13,968
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a clear lead in recent Brazilian polling as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking re-election on October 4, positioning him as the strong favorite to secure the most first-round votes. The latest Quaest survey shows him at 37% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, with Augusto Cury rising to 10% on media exposure while no other contender exceeds low single digits. This gap, consistent across multiple institutes since campaign broadcasts began in late August, reflects Lula’s established voter base and the fragmented right-wing field. Traders assign Flavio Bolsonaro only modest first-round odds, reflecting his trailing position and limited path to plurality. Upcoming debates and final voter shifts remain the main variables before ballots are cast.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$13,968
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

86%
Ja
icon for Wird Augusto Cury in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

Wird Augusto Cury in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

51%
Ja
icon for Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

80%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Lula" mit 86%, gefolgt von „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 14%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 86¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $14K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 31, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 13 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ist „Lula" mit 86%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 14%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.