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icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?
Welt·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?
Welt·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?

39 %+  86%

36-39% 10.0%

33–36 % 1.4%

30–33 % 1.2%

Polymarket

$52,421 Vol.

39 %+  86%

36-39% 10.0%

33–36 % 1.4%

30–33 % 1.2%

Polymarket

$52,421 Vol.

<30%

$5,070 Vol.

<1%

30–33 %

$5,215 Vol.

1%

33–36 %

$5,985 Vol.

1%

36-39%

$11,244 Vol.

10%

39 %+

$24,907 Vol.

86%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) consolidating right-wing support ahead of the October 4 first round, with aggregates placing him at 34–36% and individual surveys ranging from 31% (Quaest) to 41.7% (AtlasIntel). Gains in late September surveys, including narrowing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 39%, reflect successful base mobilization and transfers from lower-polling conservatives. Second-round simulations remain statistically tied or favor Flávio, underscoring his strength among non-PT voters. Campaign developments, including criticism of Bolsa Família adjustments and Supreme Court controversies, have sustained momentum without major reversals in the final weeks. Trader consensus on 39%+ reflects expectations of further tightening or late consolidation before voting begins.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$52,421
Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) consolidating right-wing support ahead of the October 4 first round, with aggregates placing him at 34–36% and individual surveys ranging from 31% (Quaest) to 41.7% (AtlasIntel). Gains in late September surveys, including narrowing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 39%, reflect successful base mobilization and transfers from lower-polling conservatives. Second-round simulations remain statistically tied or favor Flávio, underscoring his strength among non-PT voters. Campaign developments, including criticism of Bolsa Família adjustments and Supreme Court controversies, have sustained momentum without major reversals in the final weeks. Trader consensus on 39%+ reflects expectations of further tightening or late consolidation before voting begins.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$52,421
Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird Lula in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 44 % oder mehr der gültigen Stimmen erhalten?

Wird Lula in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 44 % oder mehr der gültigen Stimmen erhalten?

45%
Ja
icon for Wird Renan Santos in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 zwischen 2 % und 4 % der gültigen Stimmen gewinnen?

Wird Renan Santos in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 zwischen 2 % und 4 % der gültigen Stimmen gewinnen?

36%
Ja
icon for Wird Augusto Cury zwischen 4 % und 6 % der gültigen Stimmen in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 gewinnen?

Wird Augusto Cury zwischen 4 % und 6 % der gültigen Stimmen in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 gewinnen?

43%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „39 %+ " mit 86%, gefolgt von „36-39%" mit 10%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 86¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $52.4K generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 15, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?" ist „39 %+ " mit 86%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „36-39%" mit 10%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl in der ersten Runde: Flávio Bolsonaro Stimmenanteil?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.