Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert44 %+ 42%
41–44 % 39%
38-41 % 16%
35-38 % 4.7%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
<35%
4%
35-38 %
5%
38-41 %
16%
41–44 %
39%
44 %+
42%
44 %+ 42%
41–44 % 39%
38-41 % 16%
35-38 % 4.7%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
<35%
$353 Vol.
4%
35-38 %
$348 Vol.
5%
38-41 %
$727 Vol.
16%
41–44 %
$1,016 Vol.
39%
44 %+
$1,231 Vol.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volumen
$3,676Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,676Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 39 % oder mehr der gültigen Stimmen gewinnen?
72%
Ja
Wird Renan Santos in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 zwischen 2 % und 4 % der gültigen Stimmen gewinnen?
35%
Ja
Wird Augusto Cury in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 6 % oder mehr der gültigen Stimmen gewinnen?
38%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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