Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.7% implied probability that James Comey's federal charges—threatening the president and transmitting a threat in interstate commerce over a 2025 social media post—will not be dropped by May 31, reflecting the case's early procedural stage after a grand jury indictment on April 28 and his first court appearance days later. A prior 2025 indictment was dismissed without prejudice due to an improper prosecutor appointment, but the Justice Department swiftly refiled under new leadership, with Comey pleading not guilty and a July 15 trial date set in North Carolina federal court. Comey hired local defense counsel on May 14 amid vows to fight the charges, showing no imminent dismissal motions or procedural hurdles. Only an unexpected judge's ruling on a defense challenge, appellate intervention, or abrupt DOJ reversal could shift odds before the deadline.