The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—centered on his Senate testimony regarding the Federal Reserve’s roughly $2.5 billion headquarters renovation—remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities of federal charges near zero through year-end. Prosecutors found no evidence of criminal conduct, a federal judge quashed related subpoenas, and the matter was referred to the Fed’s inspector general. This episode unfolded amid broader tensions between the administration and the central bank over the pace of interest-rate cuts, highlighting risks to monetary-policy independence. With Powell’s term as chair expired and no active investigation or new congressional actions underway, markets currently price negligible near-term legal risk, though any future inspector general findings could theoretically reopen scrutiny.