The Massachusetts 9th congressional district's D+6 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance underpin the 95.8% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Bill Keating, first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2024 with 56% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary features limited fundraising and no established statewide profile. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's Cape Cod and South Shore composition and the party's unbroken hold on every Massachusetts House seat since 1994. A Democratic victory in the November 3 general election would align with these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant Keating scandal, an unusually strong Republican turnout surge, or a national political realignment could narrow the margin, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMA-09 Wahlsieger
MA-09 Wahlsieger
$22,962 Vol.
$22,962 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
5%
$22,962 Vol.
$22,962 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$8,164 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$14,798 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 9th congressional district's D+6 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance underpin the 95.8% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Bill Keating, first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2024 with 56% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary features limited fundraising and no established statewide profile. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's Cape Cod and South Shore composition and the party's unbroken hold on every Massachusetts House seat since 1994. A Democratic victory in the November 3 general election would align with these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant Keating scandal, an unusually strong Republican turnout surge, or a national political realignment could narrow the margin, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$22,962Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 9th congressional district's D+6 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance underpin the 95.8% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Bill Keating, first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2024 with 56% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary features limited fundraising and no established statewide profile. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's Cape Cod and South Shore composition and the party's unbroken hold on every Massachusetts House seat since 1994. A Democratic victory in the November 3 general election would align with these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant Keating scandal, an unusually strong Republican turnout surge, or a national political realignment could narrow the margin, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$22,962Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 9th congressional district's D+6 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance underpin the 95.8% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Bill Keating, first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2024 with 56% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary features limited fundraising and no established statewide profile. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's Cape Cod and South Shore composition and the party's unbroken hold on every Massachusetts House seat since 1994. A Democratic victory in the November 3 general election would align with these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant Keating scandal, an unusually strong Republican turnout surge, or a national political realignment could narrow the margin, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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