Paul LePage secured a commanding first-round lead of roughly 5,400 votes in Maine’s open 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026, after Democrat Matthew Dunlap conceded two days later. The former governor benefited from strong name recognition across the rural, northern district that Donald Trump carried by nine points in 2024, following the retirement of four-term incumbent Jared Golden. With LePage at 49.9 percent and Dunlap at 48.3 percent on first-choice ballots, plus limited blank and write-in votes, ranked-choice tabulation that began November 10 is widely viewed as unlikely to alter the outcome. Traders reflect this consensus in the 99.5 percent probability assigned to LePage, though final certification and any unexpected exhaustion patterns in second choices remain formal steps before resolution.