Mitch McConnell’s extended recovery from a June 2026 fall and hospitalization continues to shape trader views on whether the Kentucky senator will cast any Senate vote by September 30. At 84 and not seeking re-election, he has missed dozens of roll calls since mid-June while undergoing physical therapy; recent updates confirm he was discharged from rehabilitation but remains under doctors’ orders for intensive home-based treatment and is not yet cleared for full Senate duties. The chamber’s August recess provides limited near-term opportunities, leaving September session timing and any further health progress as key variables. A return to the floor or positive medical clearance could quickly shift sentiment toward a “yes” outcome, while sustained absence or statements emphasizing ongoing limitations would reinforce the narrow edge for “no.”