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Politik·Midterms

Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?

icon for Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?
Politik·Midterms

Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?

Aug. 24

Aug. 24

Dems +6.3% or lower 46%

Dems +7.0–7.1% 25%

Dems +6.8–6.9% 25%

Dems +6.4–6.5% 25%

Polymarket
NEU

Dems +6.3% or lower 46%

Dems +7.0–7.1% 25%

Dems +6.8–6.9% 25%

Dems +6.4–6.5% 25%

Polymarket
NEU

Dems +7.2%+

$0 Vol.

11%

Dems +7.0–7.1%

$0 Vol.

25%

Dems +6.8–6.9%

$0 Vol.

25%

Dems +6.6–6.7%

$0 Vol.

24%

Dems +6.4–6.5%

$0 Vol.

25%

Dems +6.3% or lower

$0 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent generic congressional ballot polling averages have stabilized in the Democrats’ favor at roughly 6 points, with August surveys from sources including Morning Consult, YouGov/Economist, and Cygnal showing margins between D+4 and D+7 among registered or likely voters. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic favoring the opposition party, compounded by a recent rebound from a narrower July gap after renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices shifted voter sentiment. Traders price the August 24 reading near the current 5-to-7-point range because fresh data releases and standard likely-voter adjustments have shown limited volatility in the preceding weeks, while wider leads above 7 points or sub-6-point outcomes remain less probable absent major polling shifts.

This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.

The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.

In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.

The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent generic congressional ballot polling averages have stabilized in the Democrats’ favor at roughly 6 points, with August surveys from sources including Morning Consult, YouGov/Economist, and Cygnal showing margins between D+4 and D+7 among registered or likely voters. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic favoring the opposition party, compounded by a recent rebound from a narrower July gap after renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices shifted voter sentiment. Traders price the August 24 reading near the current 5-to-7-point range because fresh data releases and standard likely-voter adjustments have shown limited volatility in the preceding weeks, while wider leads above 7 points or sub-6-point outcomes remain less probable absent major polling shifts.

This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.

The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.

In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.

The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.

Verwandte

icon for Trumps Zustimmung diese Woche gestiegen oder gefallen?

Trumps Zustimmung diese Woche gestiegen oder gefallen?

38%
Gestiegen
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei bei den Zwischenwahlen zum US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026 die landesweite Stimmenmehrheit mit einem Vorsprung von 8 % bis 10 % gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei bei den Zwischenwahlen zum US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026 die landesweite Stimmenmehrheit mit einem Vorsprung von 8 % bis 10 % gewinnen?

27%
Ja
icon for Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-01 House election by 50% or more?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-01 House election by 50% or more?

37%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Dems +6.3% or lower" mit 46%, gefolgt von „Dems +7.0–7.1%" mit 25%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 46¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 46% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 18, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?" ist „Dems +6.3% or lower" mit 46%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 46% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Dems +7.0–7.1%" mit 25%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Generische Stimmabgabe am 24. August?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.