Anthropic’s rapid iteration on the Claude 5 family is the main driver behind current trader sentiment, with rumors of an Opus 5.2 launch as early as September 17–18 or by month-end pushing implied probabilities above 80% for a release by September 30. Opus 5 shipped July 24, just weeks after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5, following the established pattern of 3–4 week cycles seen in prior 4.x and 5.x updates. The September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 further signals active development, though no official announcement, API ID, or system card yet confirms the next Opus variant. Traders are monitoring credible leaks against Anthropic’s typical cadence and the risk of last-minute delays common in frontier model releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$120,820 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
82%
17. September
47%
20. September
47%
24. September
69%
27. September
67%
31. Oktober
98%
31. Dezember
98%
$120,820 Vol.
30. September
$60,370 Vol.
82%
17. September
$26 Vol.
47%
20. September
$181 Vol.
47%
24. September
$60 Vol.
69%
27. September
$20 Vol.
67%
31. Oktober
$13,502 Vol.
98%
31. Dezember
$5,146 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid iteration on the Claude 5 family is the main driver behind current trader sentiment, with rumors of an Opus 5.2 launch as early as September 17–18 or by month-end pushing implied probabilities above 80% for a release by September 30. Opus 5 shipped July 24, just weeks after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5, following the established pattern of 3–4 week cycles seen in prior 4.x and 5.x updates. The September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 further signals active development, though no official announcement, API ID, or system card yet confirms the next Opus variant. Traders are monitoring credible leaks against Anthropic’s typical cadence and the risk of last-minute delays common in frontier model releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volumen
$120,820Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid iteration on the Claude 5 family is the main driver behind current trader sentiment, with rumors of an Opus 5.2 launch as early as September 17–18 or by month-end pushing implied probabilities above 80% for a release by September 30. Opus 5 shipped July 24, just weeks after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5, following the established pattern of 3–4 week cycles seen in prior 4.x and 5.x updates. The September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 further signals active development, though no official announcement, API ID, or system card yet confirms the next Opus variant. Traders are monitoring credible leaks against Anthropic’s typical cadence and the risk of last-minute delays common in frontier model releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$120,820Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid iteration on the Claude 5 family is the main driver behind current trader sentiment, with rumors of an Opus 5.2 launch as early as September 17–18 or by month-end pushing implied probabilities above 80% for a release by September 30. Opus 5 shipped July 24, just weeks after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5, following the established pattern of 3–4 week cycles seen in prior 4.x and 5.x updates. The September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 further signals active development, though no official announcement, API ID, or system card yet confirms the next Opus variant. Traders are monitoring credible leaks against Anthropic’s typical cadence and the risk of last-minute delays common in frontier model releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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