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Wahlen·Vereinigtes Königreich

Next First Minister of Scotland?

icon for Next First Minister of Scotland?
Wahlen·Vereinigtes Königreich

Next First Minister of Scotland?

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

icon for John Swinney

John Swinney

$3,218 Vol.

100%

icon for Alex Cole-Hamilton

Alex Cole-Hamilton

$1,346 Vol.

1%

icon for Malcolm Offord

Malcolm Offord

$912 Vol.

1%

icon for Russell Findlay

Russell Findlay

$2,554 Vol.

1%

icon for Anas Sarwar

Anas Sarwar

$1,945 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ross Greer

Ross Greer

$515 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gillian Mackay

Gillian Mackay

$570 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney holds a commanding lead as the SNP leader and incumbent First Minister following the May 7, 2026 Scottish Parliament election, where his party secured the largest share of seats despite falling short of an outright majority. This outcome reflects traders' assessment of the parliamentary nomination process, in which the leader of the biggest party is almost always selected, backed by Swinney's recent Programme for Government announcements emphasizing economic growth and independence strategy. Opposition figures such as Anas Sarwar of Labour or Russell Findlay of the Conservatives face structural barriers from the seat totals, with no viable path to forming an alternative government in the near term. While a cross-party coalition against Swinney remains theoretically possible, current evidence points to minimal risk of disruption before his expected confirmation later this month.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11,060
Enddatum
7. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney holds a commanding lead as the SNP leader and incumbent First Minister following the May 7, 2026 Scottish Parliament election, where his party secured the largest share of seats despite falling short of an outright majority. This outcome reflects traders' assessment of the parliamentary nomination process, in which the leader of the biggest party is almost always selected, backed by Swinney's recent Programme for Government announcements emphasizing economic growth and independence strategy. Opposition figures such as Anas Sarwar of Labour or Russell Findlay of the Conservatives face structural barriers from the seat totals, with no viable path to forming an alternative government in the near term. While a cross-party coalition against Swinney remains theoretically possible, current evidence points to minimal risk of disruption before his expected confirmation later this month.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11,060
Enddatum
7. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Next First Minister of Scotland?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „John Swinney" mit 100%, gefolgt von „Alex Cole-Hamilton" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Next First Minister of Scotland?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $11.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 23, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Next First Minister of Scotland?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 7 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Next First Minister of Scotland?" ist „John Swinney" mit 100%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Alex Cole-Hamilton" mit 0%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Next First Minister of Scotland?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.