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Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 48%

Petro - Colombia President 18%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 48%

Petro - Colombia President 18%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$21,885 Vol.

48%

Petro - Colombia President

$20,449 Vol.

26%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,135 Vol.

8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,799 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,621 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,154 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,125 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,116 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,679 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,128 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,495 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,743 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,158 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,204 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,266 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,850 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,675 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,418 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,264 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,504 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,235 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,930 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,335 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,281 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$367,449
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$367,449
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 24 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Starmer - UK PM" mit 48%, gefolgt von „Petro - Colombia President" mit 26%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 48¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 48% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $367.4K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 27, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 24 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ist „Starmer - UK PM" mit 48%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 48% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Petro - Colombia President" mit 26%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.