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Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politik·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$19,928 Vol.

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,555 Vol.

36%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 Vol.

10%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 Vol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$19,804 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,047 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$12,124 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,155 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$358,169
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$358,169
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 24 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Starmer - UK PM" mit 45%, gefolgt von „Petro - Colombia President" mit 36%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 45¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $358.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 27, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 24 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ist „Starmer - UK PM" mit 45%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Petro - Colombia President" mit 36%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.