**Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election, reflected in the market’s 87% consensus for the Republican Party.** The South Shore Suffolk County-based district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, including Garbarino’s 2024 re-election with nearly 60% of the vote. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited Democratic path to victory. Garbarino benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising (over $3.5 million raised versus roughly $460,000 for Democrat Patrick Halpin), and uncontested primaries that conserved resources. Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive and state assembly member, faces structural headwinds in a district where voter registration and recent election margins favor Republicans. National generic ballot trends showing modest Democratic advantages have not shifted this seat into competitive territory, and no major late-breaking developments—such as redistricting changes or high-profile endorsements—have altered the local dynamics in recent weeks. Traders’ pricing aligns with these established partisan, financial, and rating fundamentals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-02 Wahlsieger
NY-02 Wahlsieger
$17,563 Vol.
$17,563 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
87%
Demokratische Partei
14%
$17,563 Vol.
$17,563 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$7,102 Vol.
87%
Demokratische Partei
$10,461 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election, reflected in the market’s 87% consensus for the Republican Party.**
The South Shore Suffolk County-based district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, including Garbarino’s 2024 re-election with nearly 60% of the vote. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited Democratic path to victory.
Garbarino benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising (over $3.5 million raised versus roughly $460,000 for Democrat Patrick Halpin), and uncontested primaries that conserved resources. Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive and state assembly member, faces structural headwinds in a district where voter registration and recent election margins favor Republicans. National generic ballot trends showing modest Democratic advantages have not shifted this seat into competitive territory, and no major late-breaking developments—such as redistricting changes or high-profile endorsements—have altered the local dynamics in recent weeks. Traders’ pricing aligns with these established partisan, financial, and rating fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volumen
$17,563Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election, reflected in the market’s 87% consensus for the Republican Party.**
The South Shore Suffolk County-based district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, including Garbarino’s 2024 re-election with nearly 60% of the vote. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited Democratic path to victory.
Garbarino benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising (over $3.5 million raised versus roughly $460,000 for Democrat Patrick Halpin), and uncontested primaries that conserved resources. Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive and state assembly member, faces structural headwinds in a district where voter registration and recent election margins favor Republicans. National generic ballot trends showing modest Democratic advantages have not shifted this seat into competitive territory, and no major late-breaking developments—such as redistricting changes or high-profile endorsements—have altered the local dynamics in recent weeks. Traders’ pricing aligns with these established partisan, financial, and rating fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$17,563Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election, reflected in the market’s 87% consensus for the Republican Party.** The South Shore Suffolk County-based district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, including Garbarino’s 2024 re-election with nearly 60% of the vote. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited Democratic path to victory. Garbarino benefits from incumbency, substantial fundraising (over $3.5 million raised versus roughly $460,000 for Democrat Patrick Halpin), and uncontested primaries that conserved resources. Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive and state assembly member, faces structural headwinds in a district where voter registration and recent election margins favor Republicans. National generic ballot trends showing modest Democratic advantages have not shifted this seat into competitive territory, and no major late-breaking developments—such as redistricting changes or high-profile endorsements—have altered the local dynamics in recent weeks. Traders’ pricing aligns with these established partisan, financial, and rating fundamentals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen