Democratic control of the House remains insufficient to advance articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which were introduced in April 2026 over allegations tied to military actions in Iran and referred to the Judiciary Committee without further action. The Republican majority shows no inclination to schedule hearings, debate, or a floor vote in the 13 days left before the June 30 resolution deadline, consistent with historical patterns where opposition-led resolutions stall absent bipartisan consensus or urgent new evidence. Traders assign a 98.9% probability to “No” because the procedural calendar and chamber arithmetic leave no realistic path for House passage. A late-breaking scandal or unexpected Republican defections could theoretically compress timelines, though both remain improbable given current legislative priorities and the limited session days remaining.