Recent polling trends and declining presidential approval ratings have shaped trader expectations for Republican performance in the 2026 midterms. With Republicans holding a narrow majority entering the cycle, generic ballot averages show Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, consistent with historical patterns of losses for the president's party. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Tennessee have produced modest map adjustments, while economic indicators and voter sentiment continue to factor into forecasts of net Republican seat losses in the low to mid double digits. These dynamics support elevated probabilities on outcomes below 200 seats, though late-cycle economic shifts or turnout surges could still narrow the range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUnter 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.4%
215-219 11.1%
$234,839 Vol.
$234,839 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
27%
190-194
11%
195-199
12%
200-204
11%
205–209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
2%
Unter 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.4%
215-219 11.1%
$234,839 Vol.
$234,839 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
$17,616 Vol.
27%
190-194
$8,513 Vol.
11%
195-199
$28,129 Vol.
12%
200-204
$22,115 Vol.
11%
205–209
$35,376 Vol.
10%
210-214
$12,841 Vol.
9%
215-219
$8,059 Vol.
11%
220-224
$53,714 Vol.
9%
225-229
$21,391 Vol.
3%
230+
$27,084 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling trends and declining presidential approval ratings have shaped trader expectations for Republican performance in the 2026 midterms. With Republicans holding a narrow majority entering the cycle, generic ballot averages show Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, consistent with historical patterns of losses for the president's party. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Tennessee have produced modest map adjustments, while economic indicators and voter sentiment continue to factor into forecasts of net Republican seat losses in the low to mid double digits. These dynamics support elevated probabilities on outcomes below 200 seats, though late-cycle economic shifts or turnout surges could still narrow the range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$234,839Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling trends and declining presidential approval ratings have shaped trader expectations for Republican performance in the 2026 midterms. With Republicans holding a narrow majority entering the cycle, generic ballot averages show Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, consistent with historical patterns of losses for the president's party. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Tennessee have produced modest map adjustments, while economic indicators and voter sentiment continue to factor into forecasts of net Republican seat losses in the low to mid double digits. These dynamics support elevated probabilities on outcomes below 200 seats, though late-cycle economic shifts or turnout surges could still narrow the range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$234,839Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling trends and declining presidential approval ratings have shaped trader expectations for Republican performance in the 2026 midterms. With Republicans holding a narrow majority entering the cycle, generic ballot averages show Democrats ahead by roughly five to six points, consistent with historical patterns of losses for the president's party. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia and Tennessee have produced modest map adjustments, while economic indicators and voter sentiment continue to factor into forecasts of net Republican seat losses in the low to mid double digits. These dynamics support elevated probabilities on outcomes below 200 seats, though late-cycle economic shifts or turnout surges could still narrow the range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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