Nancy Lacore’s narrow victory in the open SC-01 seat produced the tight margin reflected in current trader pricing, with Democrat 0-3% holding the highest probability. The race for the Charleston-area district, vacated by Republican Nancy Mace, featured Democrat Lacore’s strong fundraising and military background against Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt’s local government record. Late-cycle attacks on Honeycutt’s positions regarding development and data centers, combined with shifts in Charleston and Berkeley counties, narrowed what pre-election models had rated as a Lean Republican contest. High turnout and localized swings kept the final spread under two points, consistent with the market’s emphasis on sub-3% outcomes for either party and limited support for wider margins. Certification and any remaining ballots will determine exact resolution within the leading bands.