A federal judge's ruling has paused aboveground construction on the White House ballroom project pending congressional approval, prompting an appeal by the Trump administration while allowing limited underground work to continue. Traders assign the highest probability to unblocking by May 31 because the appeals process and any related budget legislation could clear the path within that window, though current odds reflect substantial uncertainty around timing. Recent statements from President Trump describing the project as doubled in size and ahead of schedule have not shifted probabilities markedly, as the core barriers remain tied to legislative funding and court clarification rather than executive action alone. Upcoming Senate budget deliberations and potential appellate rulings represent the primary near-term catalysts that could resolve or extend the pause.