USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at Kīlauea showed the characteristic switch from deflation to steady inflation following episode 52, with models consistently narrowing the onset window for episode 53 fountaining to August 11–14 based on historical pause durations and microradian-scale tilt recovery rates. Precursory low-level lava spatter and overflows from the north vent began midday on August 12, transitioning to sustained fountaining by 3:45 p.m. HST, aligning precisely with the dominant market-implied odds. This outcome reflects trader confidence in the reliability of real-time tilt and gas emission data for predicting Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive cycles. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt reversal in inflationary trends or significant model revisions from new seismic or deformation observations, though such shifts have been rare in the current sequence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWann beginnt Kīlaueas Episode 53?
Wann beginnt Kīlaueas Episode 53?
11.–12. August 96%
8. August oder früher <1%
9.-10. Aug <1%
13. August oder später <1%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
8. August oder früher
1%
9.-10. Aug
1%
11.–12. August
96%
13. August oder später
<1%
11.–12. August 96%
8. August oder früher <1%
9.-10. Aug <1%
13. August oder später <1%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
8. August oder früher
$830 Vol.
1%
9.-10. Aug
$1,597 Vol.
1%
11.–12. August
$2,728 Vol.
96%
13. August oder später
$1,809 Vol.
<1%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at Kīlauea showed the characteristic switch from deflation to steady inflation following episode 52, with models consistently narrowing the onset window for episode 53 fountaining to August 11–14 based on historical pause durations and microradian-scale tilt recovery rates. Precursory low-level lava spatter and overflows from the north vent began midday on August 12, transitioning to sustained fountaining by 3:45 p.m. HST, aligning precisely with the dominant market-implied odds. This outcome reflects trader confidence in the reliability of real-time tilt and gas emission data for predicting Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive cycles. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt reversal in inflationary trends or significant model revisions from new seismic or deformation observations, though such shifts have been rare in the current sequence.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volumen
$6,964Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at Kīlauea showed the characteristic switch from deflation to steady inflation following episode 52, with models consistently narrowing the onset window for episode 53 fountaining to August 11–14 based on historical pause durations and microradian-scale tilt recovery rates. Precursory low-level lava spatter and overflows from the north vent began midday on August 12, transitioning to sustained fountaining by 3:45 p.m. HST, aligning precisely with the dominant market-implied odds. This outcome reflects trader confidence in the reliability of real-time tilt and gas emission data for predicting Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive cycles. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt reversal in inflationary trends or significant model revisions from new seismic or deformation observations, though such shifts have been rare in the current sequence.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volumen
$6,964Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at Kīlauea showed the characteristic switch from deflation to steady inflation following episode 52, with models consistently narrowing the onset window for episode 53 fountaining to August 11–14 based on historical pause durations and microradian-scale tilt recovery rates. Precursory low-level lava spatter and overflows from the north vent began midday on August 12, transitioning to sustained fountaining by 3:45 p.m. HST, aligning precisely with the dominant market-implied odds. This outcome reflects trader confidence in the reliability of real-time tilt and gas emission data for predicting Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive cycles. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt reversal in inflationary trends or significant model revisions from new seismic or deformation observations, though such shifts have been rare in the current sequence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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