Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a September or October listing with major banks, has driven the 87.5% market-implied probability that its IPO will precede OpenAI’s. The company’s $965 billion valuation after its Series H round and strong revenue trajectory in large language models like Claude support a faster path to public markets. In contrast, OpenAI’s later filing and recent signals of leaning toward 2027 reflect internal deliberations and a more complex corporate structure, creating uncertainty around its timeline. Traders view Anthropic’s clearer near-term catalysts as the decisive factor in the current consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic
88% Chance
$290,090 Vol.
$290,090 Vol.
31. Dez. 2027
Anthropic
88% Chance
$290,090 Vol.
$290,090 Vol.
31. Dez. 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a September or October listing with major banks, has driven the 87.5% market-implied probability that its IPO will precede OpenAI’s. The company’s $965 billion valuation after its Series H round and strong revenue trajectory in large language models like Claude support a faster path to public markets. In contrast, OpenAI’s later filing and recent signals of leaning toward 2027 reflect internal deliberations and a more complex corporate structure, creating uncertainty around its timeline. Traders view Anthropic’s clearer near-term catalysts as the decisive factor in the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volumen
$290,090Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a September or October listing with major banks, has driven the 87.5% market-implied probability that its IPO will precede OpenAI’s. The company’s $965 billion valuation after its Series H round and strong revenue trajectory in large language models like Claude support a faster path to public markets. In contrast, OpenAI’s later filing and recent signals of leaning toward 2027 reflect internal deliberations and a more complex corporate structure, creating uncertainty around its timeline. Traders view Anthropic’s clearer near-term catalysts as the decisive factor in the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$290,090Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a September or October listing with major banks, has driven the 87.5% market-implied probability that its IPO will precede OpenAI’s. The company’s $965 billion valuation after its Series H round and strong revenue trajectory in large language models like Claude support a faster path to public markets. In contrast, OpenAI’s later filing and recent signals of leaning toward 2027 reflect internal deliberations and a more complex corporate structure, creating uncertainty around its timeline. Traders view Anthropic’s clearer near-term catalysts as the decisive factor in the current consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird die Marktkapitalisierung von Anthropic am Handelsschluss am Tag des Börsengangs bis zum 31. Dezember 2027 600 Mrd. $ oder mehr betragen?
96%
Ja
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
65%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
19%
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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