Recent U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 produced agreement on a large prisoner exchange but exposed persistent divides over territory, security guarantees, and the sequencing of any ceasefire, with Russia insisting on major Ukrainian concessions and Ukraine rejecting direct leader-level talks absent neutral conditions. U.S. envoys are now briefing Putin in Moscow before updating Zelenskyy, yet neither side has scheduled a bilateral presidential meeting and Putin has reiterated that any direct encounter would occur only after substantive progress or in Moscow. These entrenched positions, combined with the short window before the December 31 resolution date and ongoing military operations, underpin trader consensus that a Putin-Zelenskyy summit remains improbable. A rapid shift in the mediated process or an unexpected diplomatic concession could still alter the outlook.