Ongoing US-mediated trilateral talks, including the November 10-11 Abu Dhabi round and subsequent Moscow meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, have produced a prisoner exchange agreement and tentative plans for European participation but left core disagreements over territory and security guarantees unresolved. These developments underscore a diplomatic process centered on technical-level negotiations rather than direct leader engagement, with Putin reiterating calls for talks in Moscow while Ukraine favors neutral venues. With roughly six weeks remaining until the December 31, 2026 deadline and no scheduled bilateral summit, trader consensus reflects the absence of conditions for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. Late breakthroughs in the current framework or unexpected escalation could still alter the timeline.