The 90% market-implied probability on "No" for a public exhibition of the Leonardo-attributed Salvator Mundi by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from its prolonged absence from view since the 2017 Christie's sale and the absence of any verified loan agreements or institutional announcements. Owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the work has remained in storage—most recently reported in a Geneva freeport—while plans for a permanent home in a Riyadh or Al-Ula museum tied to Vision 2030 face extended construction timelines beyond the current deadline. Past attempts, including a canceled 2018 Louvre Abu Dhabi showing, underscore patterns of secrecy and delays. With no guild-style precursors, critic previews, or credible reporting from outlets like The Art Newspaper signaling movement, traders see limited catalysts for a late-year unveiling, though an unexpected official confirmation could still alter consensus.