xAI's Grok models lag on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring 12-14% in Epoch AI evaluations last summer, far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leading at 47.6%, reflecting xAI's focus on other strengths like long-context reasoning amid competitive scaling races. A May 11 update revealed AI-assisted reviews flagging fatal errors in about one-third of Tiers 1-4 problems, potentially prompting re-evaluations that could recalibrate leaderboards. Traders monitor xAI's Colossus supercluster expansions and iterative Grok 4.x releases—latest Grok 4.3 beta in April—for a pre-June 30 leap toward 25% via enhanced test-time compute or Grok 5 previews, though benchmark contamination risks and verification rigor add uncertainty to implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$20,870 Vol.
28. Feb. 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models lag on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring 12-14% in Epoch AI evaluations last summer, far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leading at 47.6%, reflecting xAI's focus on other strengths like long-context reasoning amid competitive scaling races. A May 11 update revealed AI-assisted reviews flagging fatal errors in about one-third of Tiers 1-4 problems, potentially prompting re-evaluations that could recalibrate leaderboards. Traders monitor xAI's Colossus supercluster expansions and iterative Grok 4.x releases—latest Grok 4.3 beta in April—for a pre-June 30 leap toward 25% via enhanced test-time compute or Grok 5 previews, though benchmark contamination risks and verification rigor add uncertainty to implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$20,870Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models lag on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring 12-14% in Epoch AI evaluations last summer, far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leading at 47.6%, reflecting xAI's focus on other strengths like long-context reasoning amid competitive scaling races. A May 11 update revealed AI-assisted reviews flagging fatal errors in about one-third of Tiers 1-4 problems, potentially prompting re-evaluations that could recalibrate leaderboards. Traders monitor xAI's Colossus supercluster expansions and iterative Grok 4.x releases—latest Grok 4.3 beta in April—for a pre-June 30 leap toward 25% via enhanced test-time compute or Grok 5 previews, though benchmark contamination risks and verification rigor add uncertainty to implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$20,870Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok models lag on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring 12-14% in Epoch AI evaluations last summer, far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leading at 47.6%, reflecting xAI's focus on other strengths like long-context reasoning amid competitive scaling races. A May 11 update revealed AI-assisted reviews flagging fatal errors in about one-third of Tiers 1-4 problems, potentially prompting re-evaluations that could recalibrate leaderboards. Traders monitor xAI's Colossus supercluster expansions and iterative Grok 4.x releases—latest Grok 4.3 beta in April—for a pre-June 30 leap toward 25% via enhanced test-time compute or Grok 5 previews, though benchmark contamination risks and verification rigor add uncertainty to implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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