Google and Meta hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 35% as the #2 AI lab by end of October under style-controlled benchmarks, reflecting a tight race where recent model releases and benchmark adjustments favor substance over stylistic length. Google's Gemini 3.5 advancements in agentic workflows, coding integration, and multimodal reasoning at I/O 2026 bolster its position, while Meta's August release of the open Muse Glimmer model builds on Llama iterations to deliver competitive performance once formatting biases are controlled. OpenAI, Anthropic, and others trail with single-digit odds amid slower recent momentum. Traders weigh upcoming developer conferences and leaderboard updates as potential swing factors in this uncertain contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMeta 35%
Google 35%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 12%
$12,036 Vol.
$12,036 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Meta
35%
35%
OpenAI
13%
Anthropic
12%
Alibaba
6%
Z.ai
3%
SpaceXAI
5%
Moonshot
2%
ByteDance
2%
Meituan
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
5%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta 35%
Google 35%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 12%
$12,036 Vol.
$12,036 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Meta
$635 Vol.
35%
$4,073 Vol.
35%
OpenAI
$731 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$513 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$372 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$349 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$387 Vol.
5%
Moonshot
$219 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$359 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$244 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$349 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$419 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$371 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$396 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$410 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$401 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$378 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$319 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$372 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$378 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$358 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Meta hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 35% as the #2 AI lab by end of October under style-controlled benchmarks, reflecting a tight race where recent model releases and benchmark adjustments favor substance over stylistic length. Google's Gemini 3.5 advancements in agentic workflows, coding integration, and multimodal reasoning at I/O 2026 bolster its position, while Meta's August release of the open Muse Glimmer model builds on Llama iterations to deliver competitive performance once formatting biases are controlled. OpenAI, Anthropic, and others trail with single-digit odds amid slower recent momentum. Traders weigh upcoming developer conferences and leaderboard updates as potential swing factors in this uncertain contest.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$12,036Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Meta hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 35% as the #2 AI lab by end of October under style-controlled benchmarks, reflecting a tight race where recent model releases and benchmark adjustments favor substance over stylistic length. Google's Gemini 3.5 advancements in agentic workflows, coding integration, and multimodal reasoning at I/O 2026 bolster its position, while Meta's August release of the open Muse Glimmer model builds on Llama iterations to deliver competitive performance once formatting biases are controlled. OpenAI, Anthropic, and others trail with single-digit odds amid slower recent momentum. Traders weigh upcoming developer conferences and leaderboard updates as potential swing factors in this uncertain contest.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$12,036Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google and Meta hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 35% as the #2 AI lab by end of October under style-controlled benchmarks, reflecting a tight race where recent model releases and benchmark adjustments favor substance over stylistic length. Google's Gemini 3.5 advancements in agentic workflows, coding integration, and multimodal reasoning at I/O 2026 bolster its position, while Meta's August release of the open Muse Glimmer model builds on Llama iterations to deliver competitive performance once formatting biases are controlled. OpenAI, Anthropic, and others trail with single-digit odds amid slower recent momentum. Traders weigh upcoming developer conferences and leaderboard updates as potential swing factors in this uncertain contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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