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icon for ¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?
Finanzas·OpenAI

¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?

icon for ¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?
Finanzas·OpenAI

¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?

ago 1

sep 1

ago 1

sep 1

OpenAI 84%

Anthropic 9%

Lambda 3.6%

Neuralink 3.6%

Polymarket
NUEVO

OpenAI 84%

Anthropic 9%

Lambda 3.6%

Neuralink 3.6%

Polymarket
NUEVO
icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$154 Vol.

84%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$0 Vol.

9%

icon for Lambda

Lambda

$0 Vol.

4%

icon for Neuralink

Neuralink

$0 Vol.

4%

icon for Canva

Canva

$0 Vol.

3%

icon for Epic Games

Epic Games

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Perplexity

Perplexity

$0 Vol.

3%

icon for Databricks

Databricks

$100 Vol.

3%

icon for Stripe

Stripe

$0 Vol.

3%

icon for Kraken

Kraken

$629 Vol.

3%

icon for Anduril

Anduril

$20 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.OpenAI's commanding 85% market-implied probability for second-largest private company status by end of August stems primarily from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and roughly $25 billion annualized revenue run rate, which positions the large language model leader just behind SpaceX in trader consensus. Anthropic's May Series H round pushed its valuation to $965 billion on stronger reported revenue momentum, yet traders assign it only 7% odds, likely reflecting expectations of an IPO timeline or slower near-term valuation gains amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT releases and enterprise adoption. Lower-probability names like Databricks, Stripe, and Lambda trail due to comparatively modest valuations and fewer recent catalysts that could reorder the private company hierarchy before month-end.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.
Volumen
$953
Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 8:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.OpenAI's commanding 85% market-implied probability for second-largest private company status by end of August stems primarily from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and roughly $25 billion annualized revenue run rate, which positions the large language model leader just behind SpaceX in trader consensus. Anthropic's May Series H round pushed its valuation to $965 billion on stronger reported revenue momentum, yet traders assign it only 7% odds, likely reflecting expectations of an IPO timeline or slower near-term valuation gains amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT releases and enterprise adoption. Lower-probability names like Databricks, Stripe, and Lambda trail due to comparatively modest valuations and fewer recent catalysts that could reorder the private company hierarchy before month-end.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.
Volumen
$953
Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 8:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Relacionado

icon for ¿Tendrá Anthropic la valoración de mercado privado más alta el 31 de agosto?

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icon for ¿Tendrá Databricks la tercera valoración más alta del mercado privado el 31 de agosto?

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icon for ¿Tendrá OpenAI la segunda valoración de mercado privado más alta el 31 de julio?

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "OpenAI" con 84%, seguido de "Anthropic" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 84¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 84% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jul 31, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?" es "OpenAI" con 84%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 84% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Anthropic" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La segunda empresa privada más grande a finales de agosto?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.