Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England’s June 18 decision, driven primarily by March 2026 CPI inflation rising to 3.3% from energy price pass-through linked to Middle East tensions, offset by a loosening labor market and slowing wage growth. The Monetary Policy Committee’s 8-1 April hold at 3.75%, with one member favoring a 25 basis point increase, reflects caution over second-round effects while acknowledging weaker growth forecasts. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026. April CPI data and May labor releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de Inglaterra en junio?
¿Decisión del Banco de Inglaterra en junio?
Sin cambio 85%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 15%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$147,275 Vol.
$147,275 Vol.
18 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio
85%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
15%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 85%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 15%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$147,275 Vol.
$147,275 Vol.
18 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$24,993 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$25,323 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambio
$30,929 Vol.
85%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$41,099 Vol.
15%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$24,931 Vol.
1%
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England’s June 18 decision, driven primarily by March 2026 CPI inflation rising to 3.3% from energy price pass-through linked to Middle East tensions, offset by a loosening labor market and slowing wage growth. The Monetary Policy Committee’s 8-1 April hold at 3.75%, with one member favoring a 25 basis point increase, reflects caution over second-round effects while acknowledging weaker growth forecasts. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026. April CPI data and May labor releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volumen
$147,275Fecha de finalización
18 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England’s June 18 decision, driven primarily by March 2026 CPI inflation rising to 3.3% from energy price pass-through linked to Middle East tensions, offset by a loosening labor market and slowing wage growth. The Monetary Policy Committee’s 8-1 April hold at 3.75%, with one member favoring a 25 basis point increase, reflects caution over second-round effects while acknowledging weaker growth forecasts. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026. April CPI data and May labor releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$147,275Fecha de finalización
18 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England’s June 18 decision, driven primarily by March 2026 CPI inflation rising to 3.3% from energy price pass-through linked to Middle East tensions, offset by a loosening labor market and slowing wage growth. The Monetary Policy Committee’s 8-1 April hold at 3.75%, with one member favoring a 25 basis point increase, reflects caution over second-round effects while acknowledging weaker growth forecasts. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026. April CPI data and May labor releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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