Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 71%
claude-fable-5 43%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 43%
claude-opus-4-6 41%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 jul 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
71%
claude-fable-5
43%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
43%
claude-opus-4-6
41%
Other
40%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 71%
claude-fable-5 43%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 43%
claude-opus-4-6 41%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 jul 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$0 Vol.
71%
claude-fable-5
$18 Vol.
43%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$61 Vol.
43%
claude-opus-4-6
$0 Vol.
41%
Other
$52 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jul 3, 2026, 8:46 PM ET
Volumen
$131Fecha de finalización
11 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 8:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$131Fecha de finalización
11 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 8:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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