Recent polling averages position left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro as the clear first-round leader ahead of Colombia’s May 31 presidential vote, though short of an outright majority. Abelardo de la Espriella holds a consistent edge over center-right rival Paloma Valencia for second place, reflecting his stronger performance among conservative and security-focused voters. Recent campaign violence, including the killing of two de la Espriella staffers, and his controversial public remarks have drawn attention but have not altered his polling lead over Valencia. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability to Cepeda and de la Espriella advancing to the June 21 runoff, while pricing a first-round outright winner at just 11.3 percent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoColombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 84%
1st Round Outright Winner 11.3%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 4%
Other <1%
$12,920 Vol.
$12,920 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
84%
1st Round Outright Winner
11%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
4%
Other
1%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
<1%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 84%
1st Round Outright Winner 11.3%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 4%
Other <1%
$12,920 Vol.
$12,920 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
$4,334 Vol.
84%
1st Round Outright Winner
$2,344 Vol.
11%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
$2,693 Vol.
4%
Other
$1,893 Vol.
1%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
$1,655 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling averages position left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro as the clear first-round leader ahead of Colombia’s May 31 presidential vote, though short of an outright majority. Abelardo de la Espriella holds a consistent edge over center-right rival Paloma Valencia for second place, reflecting his stronger performance among conservative and security-focused voters. Recent campaign violence, including the killing of two de la Espriella staffers, and his controversial public remarks have drawn attention but have not altered his polling lead over Valencia. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability to Cepeda and de la Espriella advancing to the June 21 runoff, while pricing a first-round outright winner at just 11.3 percent.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volumen
$12,920Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling averages position left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro as the clear first-round leader ahead of Colombia’s May 31 presidential vote, though short of an outright majority. Abelardo de la Espriella holds a consistent edge over center-right rival Paloma Valencia for second place, reflecting his stronger performance among conservative and security-focused voters. Recent campaign violence, including the killing of two de la Espriella staffers, and his controversial public remarks have drawn attention but have not altered his polling lead over Valencia. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability to Cepeda and de la Espriella advancing to the June 21 runoff, while pricing a first-round outright winner at just 11.3 percent.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$12,920Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages position left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro as the clear first-round leader ahead of Colombia’s May 31 presidential vote, though short of an outright majority. Abelardo de la Espriella holds a consistent edge over center-right rival Paloma Valencia for second place, reflecting his stronger performance among conservative and security-focused voters. Recent campaign violence, including the killing of two de la Espriella staffers, and his controversial public remarks have drawn attention but have not altered his polling lead over Valencia. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability to Cepeda and de la Espriella advancing to the June 21 runoff, while pricing a first-round outright winner at just 11.3 percent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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