Recent polling across multiple surveys shows Colombia’s presidential field fragmented ahead of the May 31 first round, with leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at 37–44 percent, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella near 20–29 percent and Paloma Valencia around 21–23 percent. This three-way split, combined with lower-polling centrists such as Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López, has kept every contender well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Colombian electoral rules. Historical patterns reinforce the outlook: only two candidates in the past two decades have cleared that mark in the opening round. Traders therefore assign a 94.5 percent probability that the contest proceeds to the June 21 runoff between the top two finishers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones colombianas?
¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones colombianas?
Sí
$47,000 Vol.
$47,000 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$47,000 Vol.
$47,000 Vol.
31 may 2026
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling across multiple surveys shows Colombia’s presidential field fragmented ahead of the May 31 first round, with leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at 37–44 percent, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella near 20–29 percent and Paloma Valencia around 21–23 percent. This three-way split, combined with lower-polling centrists such as Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López, has kept every contender well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Colombian electoral rules. Historical patterns reinforce the outlook: only two candidates in the past two decades have cleared that mark in the opening round. Traders therefore assign a 94.5 percent probability that the contest proceeds to the June 21 runoff between the top two finishers.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET
Volumen
$47,000Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling across multiple surveys shows Colombia’s presidential field fragmented ahead of the May 31 first round, with leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at 37–44 percent, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella near 20–29 percent and Paloma Valencia around 21–23 percent. This three-way split, combined with lower-polling centrists such as Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López, has kept every contender well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Colombian electoral rules. Historical patterns reinforce the outlook: only two candidates in the past two decades have cleared that mark in the opening round. Traders therefore assign a 94.5 percent probability that the contest proceeds to the June 21 runoff between the top two finishers.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$47,000Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Recent polling across multiple surveys shows Colombia’s presidential field fragmented ahead of the May 31 first round, with leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at 37–44 percent, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella near 20–29 percent and Paloma Valencia around 21–23 percent. This three-way split, combined with lower-polling centrists such as Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López, has kept every contender well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Colombian electoral rules. Historical patterns reinforce the outlook: only two candidates in the past two decades have cleared that mark in the opening round. Traders therefore assign a 94.5 percent probability that the contest proceeds to the June 21 runoff between the top two finishers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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