Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella 43%
Iván Cepeda Castro 40%
Paloma Valencia 18.9%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%
$28,888,871 Vol.
$28,888,871 Vol.
21 jun 2026
Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,123,908 Vol.
43%
Iván Cepeda Castro
$969,809 Vol.
40%
Paloma Valencia
$1,171,468 Vol.
19%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
$1,749,961 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López (IND)
$1,121,835 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sergio Fajardo (DC)
$1,722,327 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$1,048,801 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Felipe Córdoba
$591,361 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila (IND)
$2,853,049 Vol.
<1%
Título del grupo: David Luna Sánchez (IND)
$1,818,557 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)
$1,517,556 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
$5,762,070 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
$708,113 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
$1,781,615 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$2,493,805 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$694,239 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$1,305,568 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$430,214 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella 43%
Iván Cepeda Castro 40%
Paloma Valencia 18.9%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%
$28,888,871 Vol.
$28,888,871 Vol.
21 jun 2026
Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,123,908 Vol.
43%
Iván Cepeda Castro
$969,809 Vol.
40%
Paloma Valencia
$1,171,468 Vol.
19%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
$1,749,961 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López (IND)
$1,121,835 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sergio Fajardo (DC)
$1,722,327 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$1,048,801 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Felipe Córdoba
$591,361 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila (IND)
$2,853,049 Vol.
<1%
Título del grupo: David Luna Sánchez (IND)
$1,818,557 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)
$1,517,556 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
$5,762,070 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
$708,113 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
$1,781,615 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$2,493,805 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$694,239 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$1,305,568 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$430,214 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round lead for Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability, with Abelardo de la Espriella (42.5%) and Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%) close behind ahead of Colombia's May 31 presidential election, where no candidate needs over 50% to advance to a June runoff alongside the top vote-getter. This tightness stems from March 8 parliamentary elections and interparty primaries that fragmented the right—Paloma Valencia's center-right win splits conservative support—while Cepeda carries momentum from Pacto Histórico primaries despite President Petro's sagging approval amid violence and corruption concerns. Recent polls like Invamer's late April showing Cepeda at 44% contrast prediction market bets on right-wing consolidation; separation could arise from endorsements, final debates, or scandals in the final two weeks.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round lead for Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability, with Abelardo de la Espriella (42.5%) and Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%) close behind ahead of Colombia's May 31 presidential election, where no candidate needs over 50% to advance to a June runoff alongside the top vote-getter. This tightness stems from March 8 parliamentary elections and interparty primaries that fragmented the right—Paloma Valencia's center-right win splits conservative support—while Cepeda carries momentum from Pacto Histórico primaries despite President Petro's sagging approval amid violence and corruption concerns. Recent polls like Invamer's late April showing Cepeda at 44% contrast prediction market bets on right-wing consolidation; separation could arise from endorsements, final debates, or scandals in the final two weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug trafficking probe
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 36%18%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' amid investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, intensifying political controversy and affecting market confidence in left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro and others associated with Petro's coalition.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy. This event impacted Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political tragedy.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round lead for Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability, with Abelardo de la Espriella (42.5%) and Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%) close behind ahead of Colombia's May 31 presidential election, where no candidate needs over 50% to advance to a June runoff alongside the top vote-getter. This tightness stems from March 8 parliamentary elections and interparty primaries that fragmented the right—Paloma Valencia's center-right win splits conservative support—while Cepeda carries momentum from Pacto Histórico primaries despite President Petro's sagging approval amid violence and corruption concerns. Recent polls like Invamer's late April showing Cepeda at 44% contrast prediction market bets on right-wing consolidation; separation could arise from endorsements, final debates, or scandals in the final two weeks.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round lead for Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability, with Abelardo de la Espriella (42.5%) and Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%) close behind ahead of Colombia's May 31 presidential election, where no candidate needs over 50% to advance to a June runoff alongside the top vote-getter. This tightness stems from March 8 parliamentary elections and interparty primaries that fragmented the right—Paloma Valencia's center-right win splits conservative support—while Cepeda carries momentum from Pacto Histórico primaries despite President Petro's sagging approval amid violence and corruption concerns. Recent polls like Invamer's late April showing Cepeda at 44% contrast prediction market bets on right-wing consolidation; separation could arise from endorsements, final debates, or scandals in the final two weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug trafficking probe
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 36%18%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' amid investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, intensifying political controversy and affecting market confidence in left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro and others associated with Petro's coalition.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy. This event impacted Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political tragedy.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 19 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella" con 43%, seguido de "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 40%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 43¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" ha generado $28.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 29, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia", explora los 19 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" es "Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella" con 43%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 40%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $28.9 million operados en “Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 43¢ para "Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella" en el mercado "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 43% de que "Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 43¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 57¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Jun 21, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" tiene una comunidad activa de 422 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes